Reply To: Avacta

Nick Hargrave

Valuation assumptions: Doxorubicin generated annual sales of $1.4bn in 2022. If AVA6000 is better than standard Dox it should become the standard of care ‘overnight’ and take 100% of the market, and even more, extend the market as treatment will be available to more patients than could not tolerate standard Dox. To be conservative we assume that AVA6000 captures just 75% of the current market and apply a 6x multiplier to the revenue to reflect a discounted patent lifetime and manufacturing costs. Given the already ‘blue sky’ valuation this implies we assume no value at all for the rest of the preCISION platform or diagnostics. For a risk price we simply assume zero for maximum conservatism in the margin of safety price, assuming all platforms fail.