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Another ‘string to the bow’ for BSF with a potential cosmetics use case for its technology. Earlier stage than the ongoing leather trials, a positive outcome to which should see more interest in this company
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HARL/further-re-islandmagee-legal-update/16211530
The appeal is now scheduled for Feb-24 with the company remaining confident in its legal position
A new update to the Azerion litigation published yesterday. The interesting point on this decision is that it looks like Azerion are struggling to make their case on their argument that the inventory wasn’t made available as they are arguing they need to see the EA doc in order to make their defence. Now they can’t see it, perhaps their case is relatively weak. In the meantime, EA was already confirmed from the previous court docs but this now confirms Madden as the exclsuive AAA game. That suggests my hypothesis that the 2 games and 1 team is NFL related and a deal with the whole NFL is in the offing, which could have been the basis for the VST transaction. If BIDS find the Azerion defence, which they now have sight of, fairly weak they may be able to push for an expedited settlement. In the meantime, they are presumably in line for their usual H2 £1m+ R&D tax credit (given the last fundraise said £5m spend earmarked for sports tech build) and no seeming rush on the CLN docs again point to the hypothesis Irdeto are bridging to these events landing
Another small contract but the first from the new US team. Adding further momentum to the business on the heels of yesterday’s larger Cory barges contract:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HARL/contract-award/16196431
We have added to the IGR position this morning on the back of the trading update with confidence increased that the turnaround plan is working and an expectation of a positive November presentation update
With the share price having settled somewhat after the recent financing news and my interpretation of events differing from the market view as outlined in the BIDS forum, we are adding a small extra position in BIDS.
With the publication of our latest engagement thesis, we are also adding starter positions to both engagement ideas (BRCK & CCT) on the basis that we feel there is value in the shares that we hope to help highlight
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HARL/contract-win-searose-upgrade/16174948
Another significant contract win weighing in at £61m
We will be exiting the Forterra position in the Model Portfolio on expected short term weakness based on today’s trading update with a view to re-initiating the position at lower prices for the long term
Work on the US expansion continues positively. There remains limited interest in the shares while the wait for the Malawi MDA goes on
No surprises in the interims, although I have to note the language now being used by the CEO and Chairman, such as “ground-breaking”. They are clearly happy with more bullish language now whereas they have previously been very careful with their wording. More interesting was the investor presentation that has just concluded for some added colour:
Well funded into late next year with lots of optionality on non-dilutive funding
There is no diagnostics M&A currently being contemplated – they fully understand capital allocation implications and are focused on therapeutics where the transformative value is
Seeing efficacy in Phase 1a is a “huge landmark step” and all the clinicians in the study would also use the same word “remarkable” for the safety performance of AVA6000. They don’t need a lengthy and expensive Phase 1b expansion study to convince themselves of the efficacy, hence the change to a short fortnightly dosing study and then straight into a pivotal phase 2 registrational study in H2 24 rather than 2025
“preCISION works” – the CEO stated this simply as fact, based on the outstanding performance of AVA6000 in the clinic that had validated the platform in humans. This has led to increasing commercial interest for partnering the platform
CEO hinted at spinning out the diagnostics business to provide non-dilutive funding, stating that non dilutive funding is at the forefront of directors’ minds so “don’t worry about that”
Another solid period for the company as it continues its successful repositioning. While new market launches and a strong NFL season are needed to meet expectations the business is trading in line with our expectations and continues to trade on a lowly multiple that we don’t believe is justified
http://www.thecharacter.com/media/1ipfifzk/tri-the-character-group-plc-rowan-22-9-23.pdf
Rowan Dartington have disclosed a 5% position. A wealth manager similar to Henry Spain and we will endeavour to contact them to discuss their views on the company
2 announcements this morning suggesting that activity is ramping up, perhaps ahead of expectations. Commercial opportunities appear to require a NED to step in on an interim basis as the full time role is filled and an additional broker would suggest the company is keen now to focus on driving interest in the shares and improving the valuation to reflect the success of the business
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AVCT/peel-hunt-appointed-as-joint-broker/16131502
Difficult to comprehend the potential significance of this announcement. They have confirmed efficacy with tumour volume reduction and are aiming to bring forward the Phase 2 study on the back of an accelerated Phase 1b study to run in parallel with cohort 7. The CEO notes they are “on the verge of a paradigm shift in how chemotherapy is delivered to cancer patients”. We will looking to be adding a substantial position to the model portfolio this morning, moving to an overweight position
I met with Shisir (Exec Chairman and significant shareholder) yesterday as flagged. He remains upbeat about the valuation of the assets while acknowledging the current cash constraints the business is operating under as it tries to ramp up production. We discussed the current narrative on the company in the market and my view of their communications which have left room for some ambiguity around the the potential acquisition of TSG and negative accusations about related party transactions. He also acknowledged that the market was looking for more independent governance but the company has been running as lean as possible to utilise cash effectively for the business. I understand that Cristian Dennis stepping down has been on the cards for some time given compliance issues around his firm (Optiva Securities) being the company broker.
Shisir remains very protective of the share capital and clearly hates the idea of equity dilution at any cost let alone current prices and we can only applaud this as too many boards have little regard (or understanding) of per share intrinsic value. The $1m prepayment from customers was achieved through his trusted contacts from years in the graphite business and mgmt continues to bootstrap the business as the Madagascar operations turn cash flow positive. There is the sense that more capital is needed however.
The feedback from other investors (and me) has been to focus on current Madagascar operations to become cash flow positive before focusing on deciding and communicating the priorities from the 3 potential investment opportunities facing the company – further Madagascar capacity expansion, development of the Mozambique assets and downstream asset development/TSG acquisition. The TSG acquisition remains the most difficult as the Indian regulatory process cannot be determined with great certainty, requires investment in the company, and results in UK listing complications around the Poddar family shareholding level in TGR with the issue of shares for TSG.
Shisir is clearly passionate about the business and delivering value for shareholders but is not shy in acknowledging the issues the company is currently dealing with. We aim to continue to engage to help support the company where possible.
